Eurovision 2009 results vs Google’s predictions (nul points)
Google ran an interesting experiment - attempting to predict the results of the 2009 Eurovision contest based on search popularity.
But while it got the winner right, the rest of its predictions were a bit poor, as this table shows.
Actual results vs Google predictions
|Country||Actual result||Google prediction||Difference|
|Bosnia & Herzegovina||9||33||-24|
Nick Burcher had pointed out two reasons in advance why this experiment wasn't likely to be all that successful: "the jury vote [which accounts for half of the votes] can't be predicted and significant search volumes in Eastern Europe occur on non-Google search engines like Yandex".
And while he updated his post to claim "Norway wins a landslide Eurovision victory, Google gets it right!", I think that's pretty kind - Google predicted a narrow win over Turkey in 2nd, as opposed to a thumping one over Iceland in 2nd.
Interestingly, Norway were red hot favourites at the bookies - with Greece 2nd favourites and Turkey 3rd. So they're no better at predicting it either ...
Still, one thing you could predict was that Andorra gave Spain 12 points - they had 0 until then. So some things never change:
- How does Europe Make Its Mind Up? Connections, cliques, and compatibility between countries in the Eurovision Song Contest
- Comparison of Eurovision Song Contest Simulation with Actual Results Reveals Shifting Patterns of Collusive Voting Alliances.
- The maths of Eurovision voting